CME Data Highlights Shift in Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Recent data from the CME Group reveals a significant shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. A new analysis shows that there is now a 71.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a stark change compared to previous predictions. This shift is fueled by heightened market volatility as traders await further insight from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on August 22nd, 2025. Before this anticipated address, the CME ‘FedWatch’ tool reflected a decline in the probability of a rate cut, with only a 14.6% chance for a decision to remain unchanged in October.