JPMorgan Forecasts 60% Global Recession Risk Due to U.S. Trade Policies

JPMorgan Chase has raised the probability of a global recession to 60%, citing uncertainties stemming from new trade policies implemented by the U.S. The report indicates that escalating tensions in international trade, driven by tariffs on China and the European Union, are major contributing factors. 2025 economic forecasts suggest a 35% chance of US recession based on Goldman Sachs’ analysis. Meanwhile, HSBC predicts a 40% likelihood of recession by year-end, further signaling heightened global economic uncertainty.