Recession Risks Spike as U.S. Tariffs Fuel Economic Fears

Economic forecasts have shifted, with traders now anticipating a 60% chance of a US recession by 2025, driven primarily by new tariffs imposed by the government. This surge in risk reflects growing concerns about economic stability and its impact on global markets. Kalshi and Polymarket, two leading prediction platforms, have both revised their recession outlook upwards, highlighting the potential for market volatility. Analysts suggest that increased tariffs are exacerbating existing anxieties, particularly in the face of an inverted yield curve – a historical indicator often associated with slowing growth and a possible economic downturn.