Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Dead? Experts Debate Shifting Market Dynamics

A debate rages within the cryptocurrency community about whether the traditional 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle remains a relevant predictor of price movements. For years, this cycle was seen as dictating price trends after each halving event. But a shift in market dynamics is causing many to question its effectiveness. Bitcoin expert Pierre Rochard argues that the classic 4-year pattern is obsolete, stating that halvings no longer have an impact on Bitcoin’s trading supply since over 95% of BTC has already been mined. This leaves demand as the primary driver, driven by retail investors, wealth platforms offering Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption. Crypto author Jason Williams adds to this perspective, highlighting the immense holdings of top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies that now hold almost one million BTC. This signifies a major change in the market landscape. Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan points out that the impact of halvings is diminishing as interest rates continue to decline, regulatory clarity increases, and institutional adoption accelerates. These forces are creating more stable price trends and potentially reducing the likelihood of dramatic boom-and-bust cycles. While some remain skeptical about this shift in dynamics, others, such as Crypto Analyst CRYPTO₿IRB, argue that the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) aligns crypto with traditional finance, strengthening the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements. 2026 may not see a sudden super-cycle but rather a sustained period of steady growth – a potential signal of a changing market landscape. Crypto expert and YouTuber Benjamin Cowen observes that historical patterns indicate a familiar post-halving trajectory for Bitcoin: rising in July and August, followed by dips in September, and then a climb towards the peak in Q4 before entering a bear market. This suggests that while the exact mechanics of the cycle are evolving, its seasonal tendencies remain intact. The key takeaway is this: the influence of halvings may be diminishing as macroeconomic forces, institutional demand, and ETFs shape Bitcoin’s future price trends. Long-term investors should focus on fundamental factors like ETF inflows, regulations, and broader economic trends.