A recent report by JPMorgan’s Chief Economist, Michael Feroli, warns of the significant economic impact of tariffs imposed by President Trump. According to the report, while these tariffs could generate substantial revenue for the U.S., they may ultimately hurt consumers through increased prices. Mr. Feroli estimates that the new tariffs will raise nearly $400 billion in revenue, roughly 1.3% of GDP. These measures are expected to increase consumer expenditure prices by 1-1.5% this year. Inflation effects are anticipated to become noticeable by mid-year. The resulting reduction in purchasing power could lead to a decline in real disposable personal income from the second to third quarter, potentially triggering a contraction in real consumer spending during these periods. This impact alone poses a potential risk of recession for the economy. Further analysis reveals that over one-third of emerging market companies may face significant challenges due to U.S. trade tariffs. JPMorgan’s findings indicate that 36% of companies within the CEMBI Emerging Market corporate debt index are likely to be impacted, with 16% facing serious difficulties.