Bitcoin’s Potential Double Top Threatens Momentum

Expert analysis suggests a double top structure for Bitcoin prices might be forming, raising concerns about future price action. Coindesk analyst Oliver Knight highlights similarities in Bitcoin’s current movement with on-chain indicators observed during the 2021 surge. Knight emphasizes the significance of monitoring weekly RSI, which has exhibited bearish divergence in March 2024, December 2024, and May 2025. The RSI indicator assesses average price changes over a period to gauge overbought or oversold conditions. Bearish divergence occurs when the RSI trend falls while the price trend rises. The recent Bitcoin breakout has seen lower trading volume than during its initial $100,000 breakthrough, suggesting weakening momentum. This decline is evident in both cryptocurrency and institutional trading platforms, with CME Bitcoin futures failing to surpass 35,000 contracts in three out of the past four weeks. Volumes previously surpassed 65,000 contracts during the previous $100,000 surge, with three occasions exceeding 85,000. Open interest has also diverged from price trends, currently down 13% from January’s peak of $109,000 compared to a modest 5.8% price decrease. Four years ago, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, open interest fell by 15.6% from its initial peak of 65,000 contracts following a 6.6% price increase. Knight concludes that these indicators suggest Bitcoin’s current price may reach new highs similar to the 2021 surge but the momentum behind this movement is waning.