The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released today, May 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Markets are anticipating a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.4%, matching last month’s reading. However, this CPI data could signal a significant turning point for the U.S. economy, which has already shown signs of weakness with Q1 GDP falling into negative territory and growth slowing down. A higher-than-expected CPI could confirm stagflation, a scenario where inflation rises while economic growth weakens, potentially leading to delayed interest rate cuts and a market downturn. Conversely, if the CPI comes in lower than expected, it could signal easing inflationary pressures and fuel market rallies. 2.4% is the widely anticipated number from Polymarket traders but Truflation data currently shows an actual figure of 1.68%, suggesting the possibility of an undershoot. A surprise in today’s CPI data can have a cascading effect on various markets, including stocks, crypto, and bonds.