Economists worldwide are watching closely as the U.S. non-farm payroll report for April is set to be released on Friday. Growing concerns about potential disruptions in the American job market, fueled by tariffs initiated under former President Trump, raise expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2023 potentially in June. Apollo Global Management, a prominent Wall Street asset management firm, highlights the escalating global trade tensions and the imposition of a hefty 145% tariff on other countries in early April as potential catalysts for negative job growth and a surge in unemployment to reach 4.5%, compared to expectations of 4.2%. The effective U.S. tariff rate reached 23%, the highest since 1900, during the survey period from April 7 to 13, leading to significant drops in both business confidence and consumer expectations. With anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut intensifying rapidly, Fed board member Waller, a 2024 voting member, stated that layoffs driven by tariffs would support such a move, while Cleveland Fed President Mester, a 2026 voting member, hinted at action if June data aligns with expectations. Goldman Sachs’ models have indicated high-frequency indicators like initial jobless claims (currently at 222,000) and the ISM services index are signaling a recession. The CME FedWatch tool reflects an impressive 12.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in June. Despite the labor market’s current resilience, as evidenced by March non-farm payrolls adding 228,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, the delayed impact of tariffs is starting to show through. New orders for businesses have declined sharply, capital expenditure plans are frozen, and inventory levels are at record highs. Consumers are proactively spending to avoid price hikes, according to a Bloomberg survey. Economists have increased their prediction of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months from 30% to 45%, with JPMorgan and BCA Research signaling a probability exceeding 50%. Apollo’s model suggests that tariffs-induced supply chain disruptions could trigger a recession by summer 2025, making the April jobs report a critical inflection point in the