Investment firm ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has revised its forecast for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, predicting a potential rise to up to $2.4 million by the year 2030. Their analysis outlines three scenarios: a bearish case of $300,000, a base case of $710,000, and a bullish scenario reaching above $1.5 million. ARK’s optimistic projection for Bitcoin’s value is contingent on the growth of its on-chain financial services at an annual rate of 60%, surpassing the $2.4 million mark.
Based on their valuation model, ARK focuses on six key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s value: national reserves, corporate treasuries, digital gold positioning, institutional investment, adoption in emerging markets, and Bitcoin-driven financial services. These contribute a substantial 43% of the anticipated value, with institutional investments being the primary driver in the bullish scenario.
Specifically, ARK’s base case assumes that Bitcoin will capture 6.5% of the global $200 trillion investable asset pool (excluding gold). Emerging market adoption also plays a crucial role, even at a modest 2.5% rate, it would support the estimated $710,000 in ARK’s base case.
The on-chain financial infrastructure, including layer-2 solutions and tokenized Bitcoin, is another significant contributor to this growth. Its total addressable market was projected at $35 billion in 2024, with a CAGR ranging from 20% (bear) to 60% (bull), potentially significantly boosting the asset’s value if realized.
ARK Invest has been a vocal supporter of Bitcoin within traditional finance. They were among the first companies in the U.S. to launch a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in partnership with 21Shares, demonstrating their commitment to this revolutionary asset.