A leading crypto analyst warns that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price doesn’t necessarily signal a new all-time high, forecasting a more measured climb towards $100K-$115K before a potential correction. His analysis suggests that a direct jump to ATH levels is unlikely, with a more gradual and multi-month period of growth followed by a significant retracement before the next major cycle phase.
Colin Talks Crypto highlights a 20% chance of a straight-to-new-ATH scenario but emphasizes the likelihood of a steadier ascent into the $100K-$115K range, leading to a substantial correction. He suggests this could be in the form of a shorter 6-8 month retracement or a longer, traditional bear market lasting around a year.
However, Bitcoin is not necessarily at its peak according to other analysts. Michaël van de Poppe argues that current conditions lack typical top-of-cycle signals like retail euphoria, headline speculation and extreme pricing. He compares the market to late 2019 and early 2023, periods that saw significant accumulation before a new cycle.
On-chain metrics also support a recovery phase, with Ali highlighting the on-chain trader loss margin, which has historically bottomed at -37% during deep capitulation phases before major reversals. Currently, it’s at -20%, signaling some market pain but not the kind of exhaustion typically associated with the end of a bull cycle.
Analysts emphasize the continued importance of low retail participation and limited speculative demand as key indicators.
The combination of quiet sentiment, incomplete capitulation metrics and the potential for one more rally before a deeper correction forms the basis of current market analysis. This article provides educational information only; it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with licensed professionals before making any investment decisions.