CME Data Shows High Probability of Fed Rate Cut in December

Recent CME Group data suggests a high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates an 86.9% chance of this move, with only a 13.1% likelihood of maintaining current policy. By January, the odds of a 25 basis point cut decrease slightly, standing at 67.3%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged remains at 9.6%. Finally, there is a 23.1% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point reduction.