Dollar Expected to Wane as Economic Growth Slows

Pictet Asset Management strategist Luca Paolini predicts a weakening of the US dollar in 2024, fueled by anticipated slowing economic growth in the US. This potential slowdown will likely result in further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and lower the interest rate differential for the dollar. According to Paolini, this decrease in inflation will come as the US economy weakens. Meanwhile, economies like those of Europe and Japan are poised for improvement. Additionally, Paolini argues that the dollar remains significantly overvalued, which could contribute to its decline in value. Pictet forecasts the dollar index will fall from around 99.55 by the end of 2026 to 95.