The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility. Bitcoin has lost over 10% in recent days and struggles to regain momentum. Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the crypto ecosystem, attributes this decline to a contraction in global dollar liquidity rather than institutional disinterest. His analysis challenges conventional interpretations and sparks debate about the underlying drivers of the market. Hayes suggests that Bitcoin could drop as low as $80,000 before reaching its projected peak of $250,000 by year-end. He cites a possible scenario where a 10-20% correction in stock markets and high interest rates force the U.S. government to inject massive liquidity. This, he believes, would propel Bitcoin’s price to between $200,000 and $250,000, but before reaching that level, he anticipates a drop to $80,000. He bases this prediction on the expectation of an expansionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to support the economy. Hayes acknowledges that Bitcoin has been rising despite shrinking dollar liquidity since April, attributing this anomaly to institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs and pro-crypto rhetoric under the Trump administration. However, these dynamics are now proving their limits. Bitcoin ETF outflows have reached record levels in recent weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT saw a $463 million outflow on November 14th alone, with international crypto funds collectively losing $2 billion over the week. Hayes suggests that this is not a rejection of Bitcoin by institutions but rather a targeted strategy known as