Ripple’s XRP: Navigating Uncertainty After ETF Launch

Following the launch of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF, Canary XRPC, Ripple’s XRP price saw a mixed reaction. While the fund generated over $243 million in net inflows within two days, the price remained stagnant, experiencing a drop of about 9%, sliding to around $2.21 as broader market sentiment weakened. However, institutional activity surrounding XRP continues to grow, with Evernorth Holdings filing for a public offering with a $1 billion XRP treasury to facilitate regulated yield products and tokenized finance tools. On-chain data also shows roughly 149 million XRP (approximately $335 million) moving off exchanges into self-custody, a sign that some traders are accumulating the asset. Despite this activity, the short-term price remains volatile, currently stuck between roughly $2.06 and $2.26, creating a tightening range. The 4H chart reveals the market is struggling to find direction after a significant dip, with XRP bouncing off the $2.06 zone but failing to climb above $2.47. If XRP can reclaim the $2.33–$2.47 region with substantial volume, it could signal a potential recovery. However, if momentum falters, another test of $2.06 might be in sight. Market indicators are cautious, mirroring this market sentiment. The RSI sits between 35-40 on the 4H timeframe, indicating weak buying strength yet leaving room for an upward reversal if momentum shifts. Open interest hovers near $190 million but is declining, signaling that traders are reducing their exposure rather than adding new positions after a widely anticipated event failed to spark a rally. The MACD remains below the signal line, although the histogram is leveling out, hinting at potential momentum shift. Ultimately, the indicators suggest a market indecisive, not bearish enough to decline, but also not strong enough for a clear reversal. This week will be crucial for XRP: If it can establish support above $2.20 and build a solid base, a move toward $2.33 could follow. If the price falls back towards $2.06, bearish sentiment might return with possible downside targets at $2.00 and $1.90. Right now, the market appears to be caught between a rock and a hard place: fundamental strength is evident due to the ETF launch, institutional interest, and exchange outflows but the chart remains hesitant, waiting for decisive action. Whether XRP price can turn the $2.33–$2.47 zone into true support and initiate a post-ETF recovery will determine this week’s trajectory.