Improving Betting Accuracy on Polymarket: A Guide to Real-Time Forecasting

Polymarket is reshaping forecasting by pricing the future dynamically, valuing accurate confidence and rewarding rapid belief adjustments. Forget predictions as opinions; on Polymarket, every forecast pays a rent. The winners aren’t prophets but those who quickly abandon wrong assumptions.  Where media debates occur, Polymarket decides. Prices move ahead of headlines, penalizing certainty and proving that humility—not confidence—wins in uncertain environments.