Strategy’s Bitcoin mNAV Plummets to Historic Low, Raising Concerns about Treasury Viability

Strategy, a publicly traded firm known for holding significant Bitcoin reserves, has seen its Bitcoin market Net Asset Value (mNAV) plummet to 1.174, the lowest point since February 2024. This decline has sparked worries among investors concerning the future of crypto treasury models and has increased risks for institutional holders of Bitcoin. The company’s continued focus on corporate Bitcoin adoption remains unchanged in public statements despite heightened investor apprehension and scrutiny. 1.174 mNAV, however, significantly impacts funding opportunities as it diminishes the premium on shares relative to their Bitcoin holdings. This raises concerns about the company’s ability to expand its Bitcoin holdings without diluting shareholder equity. Experts warn that sustained drops in mNAV could threaten the viability of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, while increasing pressure from PIPE selling, or private investments for public offerings, may lead to forced Bitcoin sales if investors capitalize before lock-up expirations, potentially accelerating share price decline and further mNAV depreciation. A notable analyst at Standard Chartered, Geoffrey Kendrick, emphasizes the importance of a mNAV above 1.0 for digital asset treasury companies, as values below this threshold suggest weaker balance sheets, impacting consolidation in the market. Matthew Sigel, another expert, highlights how declining mNAVs may impact shareholder equity without offering any strategic benefits.