Discussions around what would happen if Ripple’s XRP were to mirror Bitcoin’s scarcity model have become increasingly prominent. As you know, Bitcoin halvings impact its supply every four years, usually leading to price surges. While XRP does utilize a burn mechanism, it was not intended for price pumps. Instead, this mechanism is designed to maintain network stability and combat spam with minimal transaction fees. 14.18 million XRP have already been burned since the XRP Ledger’s inception in 2012, representing a mere 0.014% of the total supply and less than 0.023% of today’s circulating supply. The current burn rate is around 2,700 tokens per day, adding up to roughly one million tokens annually. This relatively low burn rate would take nearly a thousand years to completely eliminate a single billion XRP – meaning a sustained halving-like effect is highly unlikely. The Impact of Halvings: A Hypothetical Scenario CryptoBasic recently challenged Google’s AI, Gemini, to envision a scenario where XRP were subject to Bitcoin halvings. In this hypothetical model, if the total supply were cut in half from its current 100 billion tokens while maintaining constant demand, the price could jump significantly. The cautious estimate suggests a potential price increase of up to $6.12, roughly doubling the price, but more realistically, halving the supply might lead to a market cap that increases by up to 2.5x, potentially reaching $455 billion. This scenario is based on similar trends observed in Bitcoin’s post-halving price rallies. Why This Scenario is Unlikely: However, the likelihood of such an approach for XRP remains extremely low. The reason lies in how XRP operates. Unlike Bitcoin, all 100 billion tokens were pre-determined and issued with Ripple controlling a large portion held in escrow until released on a predictable schedule. This mechanism does not align with traditional halving principles where mining rewards are decreased. The burn mechanism, while valuable for network security and spam control, is fundamentally different from Bitcoin’s halvings. In conclusion, the price of XRP will depend primarily on adoption, demand, and the broader crypto market, rather than forced scarcity events.