Recent analysis reveals that Bitcoin (BTC) might be mirroring the early stages of a bear market from 2022. Its onchain structure is starting to resemble the first quarter of that year, when prices began their downward trajectory, ultimately leading to a significant decline in value. This concern has been further underscored by recent price actions, which have stalled at around $93,000 and suggest a potential for deeper correction.
Experts highlight how Bitcoin’s True Market Mean (the cost basis of all non-dormant coins) sits near the $81,500 mark. The level often marks a boundary between a mild bearish phase and a deeper market downturn. Although recent price stabilization is above this threshold, the broader market structure suggests a growing resemblance to the early 2022 bearish environment. This has led analysts to highlight key levels for Bitcoin in anticipation of potential shifts.
As Glassnode points out, this historical pattern resembles the bear market that followed after Bitcoin’s initial run-up. If key support levels are breached (such as the $68,100 price target), a deeper sell-off is possible. Furthermore, data on supply quantiles suggests a high number of BTC is now underwater, adding to the precarious balance between selling pressure and potential buyer interest.
The Bull Score Index, which measures bullish sentiment, is currently at an extremely low level – deep within bearish territory. This aligns with historical patterns observed in early 2022, suggesting that the market structure may be headed for further decline.
However, it’s essential to remember that market conditions can change rapidly. A break above resistance levels around $93,000 could indicate a potential shift, potentially invalidating the bearish pattern and leading to an upward price movement. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s future direction will depend on a combination of fundamental factors and investor sentiment.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. All investments carry risk and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.” }