CME Predicts High Probability of Fed Rate Cut in December

Market anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s next move leans heavily towards a potential interest rate decrease in December, according to CME Group’s ‘FedWatch’ tool. This tool suggests an 89% probability of a 25 basis point cut this month. Meanwhile, a 11% chance of maintaining current rates remains. As we approach January, the probabilities shift slightly; with a projected 64.8% likelihood of a further 25-basis-point decrease and only 7.6% for unchanged rates. A 27.6% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is also reflected in these forecasts.