Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead? Grayscale and Tom Lee See New All-Time Highs Ahead

Bitcoin has experienced significant downturns over the past two months, raising concerns about the existence of a recurring four-year cycle. However, Grayscale Research challenges this narrative, predicting new all-time highs in 2026 and even hinting at potential breakthroughs as early as next year. This optimistic outlook aligns with Tom Lee’s bullish stance, creating a rare instance where prominent voices in the industry are openly rejecting doomsday narratives surrounding Bitcoin’s future. Grayscale Research argues that this cycle is fundamentally different from previous eras due to the significant shift in investor behavior. 2023’s rally has been driven by institutional capital rather than retail frenzy, leading to a steadier, more calculated growth pattern with less volatility and faster recoveries. This unique market structure, coupled with supportive macroeconomic conditions like expected rate cuts in 2025 and increased bipartisan support for crypto regulation, further strengthens the case for continued bullish momentum. Grayscale argues that the dip from its October highs—around a 32% decline—doesn’t signal impending collapse but rather part of Bitcoin’s normal cyclical pattern. This pullback showcases investor resilience as long-term gains are consistently pursued despite market fluctuations. The analysts’ optimistic stance is supported by prominent figures like Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine. Lee believes crypto price discrepancies from fundamental drivers, such as wallet growth and on-chain activity, remain strong even as prices dip. His views suggest a compelling risk-reward opportunity for both Bitcoin and Ethereum as the market may misinterpret this moment’s potential. If Grayscale and Tom Lee are correct, it might signal the beginning of a new cycle in Bitcoin that will be shaped by institutional participation, regulatory clarity, and a fundamentally different macro environment. While pullbacks can feel uncomfortable, they could signify the start of Bitcoin’s next significant expansion phase. The analysts see this as a potential inflection point with a new high on the horizon.