Traders Revise Rate Expectations Amid Data Delay Before December Fed Meeting

The U.S. Labor Department’s decision to delay the October employment report has prompted traders to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. This move led to a sell-off in federal funds futures markets, as traders now anticipate a smaller cut of 25 basis points at the December 10th meeting. Instead, they predict the Fed will maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4%. The swaps market, which reflects changes to the Fed’s policy rate, currently predicts just a 6-basis point cut for December, with a cumulative reduction of only 19 basis points by January. Before Wednesday, the swaps market had priced in a more significant 11-basis point cut, highlighting expectations of a rate cut from the Fed within the next three weeks.