Market Bets on Fed Rate Cut in December 2025

A potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025 is driving significant market speculation. Data suggests a more than 50% chance of this move, according to sources like Polymarket and the CME FedWatch tool. This anticipation is fueled by recent weak job reports, which have impacted market sentiment for future policy adjustments. While Chair Jerome Powell has expressed caution regarding a guaranteed rate cut, emphasizing that economic data will play a crucial role in shaping decisions, his cautious stance reflects the Federal Reserve’s intricate approach to navigating economic uncertainty.