The US national debt experienced a significant jump of $620 billion during the government shutdown period from late September to early November 2025. This surge pushed the total debt past $38.15 trillion by mid-November as Treasury issuance continued despite the political standstill. Market experts attribute this increase to the need for pre-approved obligations and ongoing financial commitments, even with limited discretionary spending.
While nonessential federal functions were halted, Treasury operations remained active, continuing debt issuance to meet existing funding needs. This process fueled liquidity shifts in various markets as investors absorbed new securities from the Treasury, impacting risk appetite and short-term rates.
Analysts observed a historic pattern of increased borrowing during shutdowns, which often drives adjustments in investor expectations regarding future monetary policy. These dynamics suggest the government may be providing ongoing financial support through debt issuance, even in the absence of active spending. The continued increase in Treasury securities could further impact liquidity and interest rate expectations, requiring close monitoring for potential shifts in risk asset positioning.
The shutdown also triggered reactions in crypto markets where increased Treasury issuance often influences risk appetite and investor behavior.