U.S. Economic Outlook: Liquidity Surge Expected Post-Government Reopening

Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, shares his insights on the U.S. economic outlook following the government reopening. He predicts a significant increase in market liquidity as the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) releases funds in the coming days. This trend is expected to continue for several months. While quantitative tightening (QT) will conclude in December, the balance sheet will gradually expand, potentially leading to a further weakening of the U.S. dollar. Pal emphasizes that policymakers must prioritize preventing a year-end liquidity crunch. To achieve this, he anticipates the implementation of temporary measures, including regular financing and operations from the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). Government debt must be extended, and economic stimulation is expected prior to midterm elections. Overall, Pal expects a surge in market liquidity across various sectors.