Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) odds of release from custody in 2025 on the prediction market Polymarket have surged to 15%. This shift reflects a growing wave of speculation about SBF’s legal future. While still serving a 25-year sentence, his legal team is actively appealing his conviction for fraud and conspiracy charges. The possibility of successful appeals or procedural errors, potentially resulting in a reduced sentence or retrial, has fueled this rise in bets. Furthermore, the broader political climate with upcoming US elections and debates surrounding crypto regulations might influence these odds. 15% suggests an increased belief that SBF could be released before 2025.