Bitcoin Caution Evident as Traders Shift to Cautious Strategies

Traders are shifting their focus from aggressive risk-taking as hedging flows unwind, signaling a return to more measured approaches. The once fervent ‘excessive greed’ sentiment readings on sentiment gauges have cooled down towards neutral, even slipping into fear in some instances. This reflects a wave of profit-taking and a reduced appetite for risk. While ETF inflows are quietly returning, market participants are opting for caution. The critical threshold remains at play: Bitcoin has managed to maintain its above-cost basis for short-term holders since May, marking a dividing line between continued bull runs and the potential for deeper downturns. Currently, the market is testing areas of heavy supply where sellers have previously defended their positions. This shift is mirrored in the options arena as open interest is rebuilding from fresh positioning rather than legacy hedges, lowering volatility but tilting the curve toward future strength. The market exhibits a ‘neutral but constructive’ outlook, according to Glassnode, with ETF inflows returning and long-term holder selling pressure easing. Yet, the lack of a decisive breakout keeps the market in a wait-and-see mode. Whether triggered by macro factors, supply dynamics, or renewed speculative fervor remains uncertain.