A recent surge in market confidence has led prediction platform Polymarket to predict a near-certain approval for an XRP spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) before the end of 2025. The prediction comes as experts cite growing institutional interest and the SEC’s easing stance on digital asset ETFs as key drivers behind this optimistic outlook. 2025 has seen a significant shift in market sentiment, with odds previously hovering around single digits for approval, reflecting skepticism until recently. This rise, mirroring the broader trend of rising confidence in crypto ETFs following the approvals of Bitcoin and Ethereum products, is now reflected at 94%. The SEC’s regulatory timeline plays a key role in this upward momentum. Several issuers have filed proposals for an XRP ETF with statutory deadlines clustered in October 2025 after extensions. These deadlines force the SEC to make decisions within a defined period, effectively narrowing the timing of potential approval or rejection. Market watchers believe that the SEC’s more positive view on digital asset ETFs contributes to this increased likelihood of approval. A belief that an XRP ETF could unlock billions in institutional inflows is another factor driving optimism. Analysts estimate that if approved, a spot XRP ETF could attract at least $5 billion in its early trading phase, as institutions and brokerage firms gain easy access to the asset. This surge in confidence, however, should be seen with caution. While Polymarket’s 94% figure reflects collective sentiment, it is crucial to remember that this does not guarantee regulatory approval. The ultimate decision rests with the SEC who will ultimately decide based on market structure, investor protections, and compliance measures put forth by issuers. Although prediction markets can provide valuable insight, they should not be considered as definitive proof of regulatory outcomes. The upcoming deadline adds urgency and tension to the process, setting the stage for a pivotal moment in the crypto market.