Bitcoin saw a record high above $124,000 in mid-August, but its momentum has since faded, leading to significant price fluctuations. As Bitcoin hovers around $110,958 after a notable pullback from its peak, investors remain uncertain about the asset’s future trajectory. 4-year cycles of Bitcoin have become central to a prediction made by Joao Wedson of crypto analytics platform Alphractal. He anticipates a looming bear market as early as next month if these historical patterns hold true. According to his forecast, Bitcoin may reach a significant low around $50,000 by late 2026. Wedson bases this on fractal patterns spanning over a decade that have consistently shown Bitcoin peaking roughly 18 months after halving events before undergoing heavy retractions. 4-year cycles aside, the current market is significantly influenced by factors like ETF inflows, institutional demand, and unprecedented global liquidity. These elements could disrupt these established patterns. While Wedson’s analysis is rooted in historical trends, past instances have shown that investors often underestimate the persistence of cycles, leading to disappointment when assuming this time is different. On the other hand, other market experts believe Bitcoin could still climb past $140,000 before any prolonged downtrend. For instance, a sustained rally fueled by Asian-US liquidity corridors may play a significant role in pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, some analysts predict that external factors like Elon Musk’s enigmatic suggestion of US political turmoil potentially sparking volatility in Q4 2025 could influence the market beyond these cycles. The debate continues on whether Bitcoin’s performance will be shaped by its 4-year cycle or other emerging forces.