Core PCE Index Release to Shape Crypto Market Response

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the latest Core PCE Index data on July 2025, with traders bracing for significant volatility across traditional and digital markets. The index is crucial for the Federal Reserve as it shapes decisions on future interest rates. 2.9% year-over-year growth in July’s Core PCE Index is anticipated, slightly higher than June’s 2.8%. For this month, a 0.3% month-over-month rise in personal consumption expenditure inflation (which includes food and energy) is expected to remain steady at 2.6%. 2.9% year-over-year growth in the Core PCE Index will likely impact interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve. A softer reading could potentially lead to a Fed rate cut in September, although this move has already been priced into markets with an 85% probability, as per the Fed Watch Tool. Conversely, if data shows more persistent inflation, it could force the Fed to maintain rates high, leading to market pressure on equities and cryptocurrency. The release comes amidst increased anticipation for a shift in Fed policy, even as recent statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered a more dovish outlook. His comments at Jackson Hole suggested potential easing measures in the near future if inflation indicators show signs of cooling. However, the impact of these expectations remains uncertain as the Core PCE Index release could significantly influence market sentiment for weeks to come. Bitcoin and Ethereum are already showing signs of uncertainty. While a rate cut would likely fuel price increases, high volatility and increased risks of liquidation remain possible. The report is expected to have significant repercussions on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency space.