75% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in September: CME FedWatch Signals Downgraded Expectations

Market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut are shifting dramatically. The CME FedWatch tool now points to a 75% probability of a quarter-point decrease in rates at the upcoming September meeting, while only a 25% chance remains for no change at all. This shift is closely tied to recent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who highlighted employment risks as more significant than current inflation concerns during his address at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.