Federal Reserve Rate Cut Probabilities Shift: New Forecasts Emerge

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move are shifting, according to recent analyses. BlockBeats reports a surge in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, reaching 8% on Polymarket, while the chances of a smaller 25 basis point adjustment have decreased to 79%. The likelihood of no rate change stands at 12%. Meanwhile, CME’s ‘FedWatch,’ reveals a different picture, with a 4.2% probability of a 50 basis point cut and a 95.8% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in September.