Bitcoin surged past $111,970 on May 22nd, marking a historic high that has ignited excitement in the market. However, analysts are expressing cautious optimism as they weigh the short-term euphoria against potential challenges for the asset in the upcoming third quarter. While this recent surge suggests a potential new cycle might be emerging, factors such as historical trends and macroeconomic dynamics contribute to a complex outlook for the coming months. 2023’s third quarter has historically been among Bitcoin’s weakest, averaging just a +6.03% return since 2013, a stark contrast to the robust performance of other quarters like Q2 (an average +27.25%). The recent peak raises hope for sustained growth, but experts remain cautious and urge caution as market uncertainty lingers. While historical data paints a challenging picture for the third quarter, there are promising technical indicators suggesting Bitcoin’s potential for continued progress, particularly in light of institutional inflows into spot ETFs. Bitfinex notes that these trends point to a more robust market structure. However, short-term investors have also taken profits, adding another layer of complexity to the landscape as they sell their holdings at a substantial average gain. The upcoming decision by the US Federal Reserve on June 18th could significantly influence investor sentiment and the potential for Bitcoin’s future growth. The broader market remains closely watching this pivotal event as it may shape the overall appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.