Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest a possibility of one or two 25 basis point rate cuts before year-end, according to BlockBeats analysis. This expectation is slightly higher than the March FOMC predictions. The market’s probability distribution for year-end interest rates has shifted left, indicating an increased likelihood of policy rate decreases. Futures markets predict a more pronounced shift in the expected policy path, implying three rate cuts before year-end as market perceptions heighten regarding potential downside risks. However, survey data indicates little change to the median baseline rate path, reflecting two to three rate cuts this year, although responses on the most likely course of action show growing divergence.