Alphractal recently released a report analyzing Bitcoin’s price dynamics. They observed that Bitcoin’s historical price surges tend to exceed its 2-year moving average (2Y SMA) during bull markets, but these multiples have been declining steadily over time. This indicates the asset is entering a more mature and less volatile phase. Specifically, Bitcoin’s peak valuations in its early years reached up to 15 times its 2Y SMA. This value dropped to 10 by 2017 and further declined during the 2021 cycle, first to 5x and finally to just 2.65x. The current cycle hasn’t surpassed this 2.65x mark again, reinforcing the idea that returns are compressing. Notably, Alphractal estimates that the 2Y SMA ×2.65 mark aligns with a Bitcoin price of around $159,000, suggesting it as a potential ceiling if momentum resumes. Despite this slowdown in gains, analysts at Alphractal remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. The firm stated, “The opportunity to outperform the long-term average still exists.” Despite each cycle exhibiting structural strength, even if high levels are less dramatic, for long-term investors, this may be just what’s needed for wider adoption and lasting value.