Why Bitcoin Might Surpass Expectations This Month

Emerging signals suggest momentum could be building in Bitcoin’s price, defying expectations of a decline. Analysts highlight the growing link between Bitcoin’s value and global money supply metrics like M2. Historically, when central banks inject liquidity into economies through rate cuts or asset purchases, Bitcoin often follows suit, experiencing upward movement. With expansionary policies underway in major economies, this pattern might be repeating. Kaduna data suggests Bitcoin price movements often lag behind M2 changes by approximately 90 days, hinting at potential upside in the coming weeks. Past performance adds further weight to this view: Over the last 12 years, Bitcoin has averaged a 8% gain during May, significantly outperforming other months, and displaying a statistically bullish trend compared to bearish periods. Institutional interest is another factor driving upward momentum. Recent ETF data shows continued investor confidence in Bitcoin, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust leading the pack in net inflows, receiving nearly $1 billion in a single day, pushing its total past $42 billion. This surge underscores confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Furthermore, Bitcoin is demonstrating growing independence from traditional markets, such as equities, as it diverges from indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. This shift indicates Bitcoin is no longer merely a risk asset proxy but a maturing store of value with its own momentum. While macroeconomic factors such as interest rate changes or inflation data could introduce some volatility, a combination of rising liquidity, institutional adoption, and relative strength positions Bitcoin for potentially strong performance in the coming weeks.