Betting Markets Predict US Recession as Tariff Concerns Rise

Prediction markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are signaling a negative shift in the US economy, forecasting a contraction for the first quarter of 2025. This marks a stark contrast to previously optimistic projections and could signal the start of a recession. The predicted decline comes just days after Canada’s election saw the rise of Prime Minister Mark Carney who is known for his hawkish stance in trade negotiations with the US.