IMF Warns Recession Risk for US Soars in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a concerning outlook, predicting a significant increase in the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report now estimates a 40% chance of a recession, up from 27% projected just last October. This warning follows global inflation expectations being revised upwards for both developed and developing economies. The report attributes this trend to escalating trade tensions, high uncertainty, and the potential impact on growth across all regions. Notably, inflation expectations for emerging economies have seen a slight decrease from 5.6% to 5.5% in 2025.