Despite optimism surrounding the potential approval of a Ripple ETF in the US, XRP traders are showing signs of pessimism, according to recent market analysis from Kaiko. A significant portion of the options market leans bearish towards XRP, despite expectations that a ruling from the SEC on its case against Ripple may clear the way for an ETF application. 2023 saw Bitcoin and Ethereum receive approval for ETFs in the US, sparking hope among other altcoins hoping to follow suit. This has created a landscape where institutional investors are increasingly interested in legitimizing smaller cryptocurrencies. As the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, XRP is often viewed as a potential leader for such financial vehicles, with over ten applications from various financial companies seeking regulatory approval in the US. 77% of these applications have been acknowledged by the SEC, though the odds of an approval by July 31st drop to 29%. This progress has fuelled bullish sentiment within the XRP community. However, a deeper analysis reveals several red flags for investors: Kaiko highlights high liquidity in both XRP and SOL, making them frontrunners for ETF applications. While market depth exploded in late 2024, surpassing both SOL and ADA, these gains may be fueled by political and regulatory changes. This has led to a skewed bearish outlook on the options market for Deribit, with the April 18th expiration showing a significant demand for downside protection. However, this bearish sentiment is likely linked to broader market uncertainties stemming from macroeconomic concerns. The future of XRP remains unclear, but the market dynamics suggest caution and further analysis before making any major decisions.