A new report from JPMorgan paints a concerning picture for the U.S. economy, revealing a significant spike in the probability of a recession. The firm’s data indicates that stocks closely tied to the U.S. economy now carry an alarmingly high risk of a downturn. JPMorgan’s market-based indicator, specifically the Russell 2000 Index, shows a 79% chance of recession. Other asset classes are also sending warning signals: the S&P 500 Index stands at 62%, basic metals suggest a 68% probability, and even 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds reflect a 54% likelihood. In contrast, the investment-grade credit market paints a more optimistic picture with only a 25% chance of recession, representing a significant increase from the zero percent probability seen last November.