TD Securities suggests escalating trade tensions could force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner than initially expected. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is projected to reach 3% by year-end, according to their analysis. Strategists like Oscar Munoz have adjusted their forecast for the FOMC’s first rate cut, now anticipating a move as early as June instead of July. This shift in expectations leads to predictions of multiple rate cuts throughout 2026. Meanwhile, some analysts are estimating a 50% chance of a recession in the U.S., and TD Securities aligns with institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS Global Wealth Management in anticipating easing measures from the Fed.