Goldman Sachs Shifts Fed Rate Cut Forecast, Anticipating Earlier Easing

Goldman Sachs has revised its predictions for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, reflecting growing recession concerns. The investment bank now anticipates a series of easing measures as early as June, sooner than previously expected in July, in anticipation of potential economic downturn. If the U.S. avoids a recession, Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point rate reductions, bringing the federal funds rate to around 3.5% to 3.75%. However, if a recession does occur, the Fed’s response will likely be more aggressive, potentially lowering rates by up to 200 basis points next year. Goldman Sachs now anticipates a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, a significant increase from its previous estimate of 105 basis points. This adjusted outlook aligns closely with current market expectations as per last Friday’s closing prices.