Kalshi Predicts US Recession in 2025 at Over 61%

Kalshi, a prediction market platform, estimates the likelihood of a US recession in 2025 to be over 61%, following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced on April 2. The platform uses the standard definition of recession: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce. This prediction mirrors other market sentiment expressed on Polymarket, which has also seen a surge in US recession odds to 60%. The recent introduction of tariffs and ensuing sell-offs have contributed to a pessimistic outlook for the year.