Goldman Sachs Warns of Increased U.S. Tariffs and Recession Risks

Goldman Sachs has significantly escalated its prediction for U.S. tariffs in 2025, warning that escalating trade tensions pose a major threat to economic growth, inflation, and employment. The investment bank now anticipates the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points, up from a previous baseline of 10 percentage points. This adjustment is primarily driven by President Trump’s anticipated announcement of comprehensive ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2nd, which will impose an average 15% tariff on all U.S. trade partners. The expected impact, estimated to increase by another 9 percentage points, is a major factor in the revised forecast.