The current bull market for Bitcoin may be coming to an end, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant. His analysis, based on blockchain data, suggests that the market cycle has likely reached its peak. He explained this using the concept of realized market value (RMV), a metric representing the actual funds entering the Bitcoin market through on-chain activity. When Bitcoin moves from a wallet to exchange, it’s considered a ‘sell’ and vice versa for ‘buy’. RMV reflects average cost basis and helps estimate total capital invested in the market, while market value is based on trading prices on exchanges. Ju noted that when selling pressure is minimal, even small purchases can push prices up, boosting market value. CryptoQuant has utilized this strategy by issuing convertible bonds and using proceeds to acquire Bitcoin, resulting in a book value growth exceeding actual investments. However, he observed that during periods of high selling pressure, significant purchases fail to affect price, as seen when Bitcoin reached $100,000. This highlights the difference between realized market value and market value. When RMV increases but market value stagnates or declines, it indicates capital is flowing into the market without corresponding price increase—a bearish signal. Conversely, a surge in market value while RMV remains stable suggests new capital driving prices upward – a bullish sign. Currently, this pattern points towards a bearish trend as capital flows into the market but prices are stagnant. Based on historical data, Ju believes a true reversal will likely take at least six months. Short-term price rebound is unlikely in the near term.