UBS Predicts ‘Trump Put’ Will Drive Policy Amid Volatility in U.S. Markets

UBS predicts ongoing market volatility stemming from the potential for policy adjustments by President Trump and the Federal Reserve, as indicated by his statement suggesting a shift in economic policies. This comes amidst high market volatility in the United States. The firm anticipates potential rate cuts in 2025 based on this influence. The anticipated changes highlight a possible ‘Trump put’ where government intervention is likely to occur to mitigate market stress. UBS highlights this through analysis conducted on April 22, 2025. Notably, recent remarks from President Trump concerning Jerome Powell’s continued position as Chair of the Federal Reserve have triggered potential shifts in policies. Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, observed: ‘We believe the demonstrated willingness from the Trump administration to change its stance in response to equity and bond market turbulence indicates some sensitivity to market stress, and points to the existence of a ‘Trump put’ in some form.’ These remarks have influenced market movements with substantial rate corrections anticipated, particularly in light of rising layoffs. The impact was also felt by crypto markets, where BTC’s realized volatility aligned with equity market swings. Historical precedents exist, with similar fluctuations observed in response to 2018 tariff announcements. UBS believes current policies will address volatility concerns in the equity and bond markets. Similar market rebounds have been seen in times of policy adjustments. For example, crypto assets often mirror these movements during periods of economic policy shifts. The firm expects explicit rate modifications from the Federal Reserve to address potential economic downturns and anticipates a shift in market dynamics. Financial analysts anticipate phased equity market entry and balanced portfolios as key strategies to navigate uncertainty. Market participants remain vigilant in anticipation of evolving conditions, highlighting the interconnected relationship between crypto and traditional asset classes during periods of economic policy shifts.