Eurozone Inflation Forecast Remains Hot in 2025 and 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) has confirmed that inflation across the Eurozone will be higher than previously anticipated for the next two years. Its second-quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters revealed upward revisions to headline inflation forecasts, now predicting a 2.2% rate in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also saw increases across all timeframes. 2027 saw flat-line inflation at 2.0%. The ECB’s forecasts for long-term headline inflation are locked at 2.0%, indicating a slowdown in price pressures but not a complete easing. 2025 and 2026 GDP growth were also revised down, with analysts now expecting real GDP to expand by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, respectively. By 2027, the outlook brightens slightly at 1.4%. Long-term GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.3%, suggesting a lack of significant economic acceleration in the near future. Meanwhile, job market forecasts were revised upward with an average unemployment rate projected to be around 6.3% across 2025 to 2027. However, unemployment is expected to fall below 6.2% after 2027. The ECB’s updated projections are a response to the ongoing global economic climate marked by political and economic shifts driven by Donald Trump’s return as US President.