March CPI Data: Trade Challenges May Lead to Core Inflation Low Point

Economists are anticipating that the upcoming March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the U.S. may provide early insights into how changing trade dynamics are impacting prices. Wells Fargo economist Sarah House predicts a potential delay in observing the full effects of these shifts, but the anticipated data will offer clarity on how these evolving economic forces affect consumer spending. She suggests that March may mark a low point for core inflation this year. Meanwhile, mounting concerns about a self-induced recession in the U.S. have led the Federal Reserve to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach regarding interest rates. While uncertainty remains surrounding the length of trade tariffs, their impact on prices, and any subsequent price increases, the trend is clear: current trade policies present new challenges for controlling inflation. This challenge for policymakers stems from the difficulty in combating inflation without weakening demand significantly.