Is Bitcoin’s Volatile Past Ending? Annual Returns Plummet to 23.6%

Recent data shows a significant shift in Bitcoin’s annual returns, signaling a move away from speculation towards a more mature investment status. 2023 marks the first time since its inception that Bitcoin has outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, indicating a transition from volatile speculator to stable long-term asset. 2025 onwards, Bitcoin has exhibited signs of decoupling from traditional risk assets. On-chain data reveals annual returns dropping to a new low of 23.6%, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq Composite (33.5%), S&P 500 (33.9%), and Gold Futures (69.7%). This trend suggests a broader cooldown rather than an imminent price surge, as Bitcoin’s volatility compresses and its return curve flattens. While equities and gold remain strong, Bitcoin is transitioning to be less volatile, behaving more like a traditional long-term portfolio asset. This period of calm could help flush out excessive leverage, shift investor timeframes and dampen unrealistic expectations. While short-term traders may miss the hype, long-term holders could find renewed conviction. The market now faces a critical question: will this new Bitcoin become less volatile, behaving more like a rock than a rocket?